Travel Pulse has published a study that predicts the future of world tourism. Even a specific forecast date was called – 2040.
The first thing we noticed is the doubling of the number of air passengers. In our opinion, this is a too optimistic forecast. We think technology development can make some trips pointless. For example, the development of online conferences in the future can replace unnecessary and costly business trips.
As for tourism, a significant increase in the number of tourists can adversely affect the industry as a whole. Against increasing numbers of tourists there are such factors as the economic recession, the struggle to reduce CO2 emissions, the fight against overtourism. In our opinion, we should develop the quality of tourism, not its quantity. Quality in this case means cultural exchange, visiting museums, studying the history of destinations, etc.
Moreover, as we see now, the travel industry is highly prone to external influences, such as epidemics, various political and military risks. There are no guarantees that such force majeure will not happen in the future.
Therefore, we think that the number of tourists will not increase so significantly, but we expect the growth of a conscious, independent smart tourism, when a traveler with a smartphone becomes self-sufficient and responsible.
As for space tourism, we suspect that this is unlikely to become a mass phenomenon so quickly, because not only technology is necessary, but also the requirements for preparing a tourist for such kind of adventure.
But in general – this forecast is a food for thought, thanks to the author.